A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
